Economics Working Papers 2026, 10(3):4-47 | DOI: 10.32725/ewp.2026.004197


Risk Management in Public Civil Protection Policy: A Joint Incident Command Decision Model under Asymmetric Institutional Adaptation in Greece

Blioumi Theodora
Faculty of Economics, University of South Bohemia in Èeské Budìjovice

The article examines how Asymmetric Institutional Adaptation (AIA) affects the multi-level governance of disaster risk in Greece and proposes the Joint Incident Command Decision Model (JICDM) as an instrument for more targeted escalation of the involvement of the General Secretariat for Civil Protection (GSCP). Drawing on research conducted with GSCP officials and Fire Service Commanders, the article develops three composite indices that capture perceived risk intensity, the quality of institutional coordination, and the level of capacity and organizational learning. These indices are grouped into three tiers (low, medium, high), enabling the identification of distinct “profiles” of risk and governance in mainland, island, and mixed areas. The findings indicate that Fire Service Commanders systematically report higher levels of risk, coordination, and capacity compared to GSCP officials, and that AIA manifests more strongly in the dimensions of governance and capacity than in the perceived intensity of risk itself. The JICDM is formulated as a decision tree that links the three indices to threshold rules for joint incident command, with a central element being the “critical profile” of high risk combined with low governance or capacity, which mandates joint command activation, whereas more favourable profiles permit more decentralized leadership accompanied by targeted interventions to strengthen coordination and learning.

Keywords: Asymmetric institutional adaptation (AIA), Disaster risk governance, Decision model, Incident Command System, Joint Incident Command Decision Model (JICDM), Multi-level emergency management
JEL classification: H12, H83, Q54

Received: April 22, 2026; Revised: May 30, 2026; Accepted: June 17, 2026; Published: June 17, 2026  Show citation

ACS AIP APA ASA Harvard Chicago Chicago Notes IEEE ISO690 MLA NLM Turabian Vancouver
Blioumi, T. (2026).
Risk Management in Public Civil Protection Policy: A Joint Incident Command Decision Model under Asymmetric Institutional Adaptation in Greece. Economics Working Papers, 10(3), 4-47. doi: 10.32725/ewp.2026.004
Share...
Download citation
  • BibTeX (.bib)
  • Bookends (.ris)
  • EasyBib (.ris)
  • EndNote (.enw)
  • EndNote 8 (.xml)
  • ISI WoS (.isi)
  • Medlars (.medlars)
  • Mendeley (.ris)
  • MODS (.xml)
  • Papers (.ris)
  • RefWorks (.txt)
  • RefManager (.ris)
  • RIS (.ris)
  • MS Word (.xml)
  • Zotero (.ris)
    • Open full article

    References

    1. ARGYRIS, C., & SCHÖN, D. (1978). Organizational Learning: A Theory of Action Perspective. Addison-Wesley. ISBN‑10: 0201001748
    2. BIGLEY, G. A., & ROBERTS, K. H. (2001). The incident command system: High-reliability organizing for complex and volatile task environments. Academy of Management Journal, 44(6), pp. 1281-1299. DOI: 10.5465/3069401. ISSN 0001-4273 (print). Go to original source...
    3. BLIOUMI, T. (2025). The internal environment of the public Civil Protection organizairon of Greece during the management period of Covid-19. Social Sciences & Humanities Open, 12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssaho.2025.102339 Go to original source...
    4. BLIOUMI, T. (2026). Street-Level Sendai Framework Implementation in Greek Civil Protection: GSCP_FS Survey Dataset [Data set]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19298883 Go to original source...
    5. BUCK, D. A., TRAINOR, J. E., & AGUIRRE, B. E. (2006). A critical evaluation of the Incident Command System and NIMS. Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, 3(3), pp. 1-27. eISSN 1547-7355. Go to original source...
    6. COSTELLO, A. B., & OSBORNE, J. W. (2005). Best practices in exploratory factor analysis: Four recommendations for getting the most from your analysis. Practical Assessment, Research & Evaluation, 10(7), pp. 1 - 9. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.7275/jyj1-4868 Go to original source...
    7. DEVELLIS, R. F. (2017). Scale development: Theory and applications (4th ed.). SAGE. ISBN-10: 1506341586
    8. DOMORENOK, E., GRAZIENO, P., & POLVERARI, L. (2021). Introduction: policy and institutional capacity: theoretical, conceptual and empirical challenges. Policy and society. Policy and society, 40(1), pp. 1-18. DOI: 10.1080/14494035.2021.1874244. eISSN: 1839-3373. Go to original source...
    9. EUROPEAN COMMISSION. (2024). Wildfire Peer Review report: Greece 2024. Directorate-General for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.25424/CMCC-79TS-VV91 Go to original source...
    10. EUROPEAN FOREST FIRE INFORMATION SYSTEM - EFFIS. (n.d.). Annual fire statistics for EU member states 2006 - 2024. European Commission, JRC. Retrieved from https://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu
    11. FABRIGAR, L. R., & WEGENER, D. T. (2012). Exploratory factor analysis. Oxford University Press. eISBN: 9780199813513. Go to original source...
    12. FAKHRUDDIN, B., & SIMS, B. (2021). Analysis of DRR inclusion in national climate change commitments. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR). Retrieved from https://pedrr.org/virtual-library-solution/?slug=Analysis_of_DRR_inclusion_in_national_climate_change_commitments
    13. FEMA. (2017). National Incident Management System (3rd ed.). U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Federal Emergency Management Agency. Retrieved from https://training.fema.gov/nims/
    14. FIELD, A. P. (2018). Discovering statistics using IBM SPSS statistics (5th ed.). SAGE. ISBN‑13: 9781526419521.
    15. FLYVBJERG, B. (2006). Five misunderstandings about case-study research. Qualitative Inquiry, 12(2), pp. 219-245. DOI: 10.1177/1077800405284363. eISSN: 1552-7565. Go to original source...
    16. GERMANWATCH. (2025). Global Climate Risk Index 2025. Germanwatch e.V. Retrieved from https://reliefweb.int/report/world/global-climate-risk-index-2025-enarde
    17. GOVERNMENT GAZETTE. (1995). Law 2344/1995 on the organization of Civil Protection and other provisions (Official Gazette A 212/11-10-1995). Hellenic Republic.
    18. GOVERNMENT GAZETTE. (2004). Presidential Decree 151/2004: Organization of the General Secretariat for Civil Protection (Government Gazette A' 107). https://civilprotection.gov.gr/sites/default/files/pd1512004organismosggpp_el_GR.pdf
    19. GOVERNMENT GAZETTE. (2020). Law 4662/2020: National Mechanism for Crisis Management and Risk Management (Government Gazette A 27/07.02.2020). Official Gazette of the Hellenic Republic.
    20. GOVERNMENT GAZETTE. (2026). Law 5281/2026: Integrated Reform of Civil Protection and Forest Fire Management (Government Gazette A' 28/25.02.2026). Official Gazette of the Hellenic Republic.
    21. HAIR, J. F., BLACK, W. C., BABIN, B. J., & ANDERSON, R. E. (2019). Multivariate data analysis (8th ed.). Cengage EMEA. ISBN‑13: 9781473756540.
    22. IFRC, (2025). Annual Report 2024 Executive Summary. Retrieved from: https://www.ifrc.org/article/ifrc-annual-report-2024-executive-summary
    23. JENSEN, J., & WAUGH, W. L. (2014). The United States' experience with the Incident Command System: What we think we know and what we need to know more about. Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, 22(1), pp. 5-17. DOI: 10.1111/1468-5973.12034. eISSN: 1468-5973. Go to original source...
    24. JESIP. (2018). Joint Doctrine: The Interoperability Framework. Joint Emergency Services Interoperability Principles. Retrieved from https://www.jesip.org.uk/downloads/joint-doctrine-guide
    25. LACAMBRA, S., SUAREZ, G., HORI, T., ROGERS, C., SALAZAR, L., ESQUIVEL, M., NARVÁEZ, L., CARDONA, O.D., DURÁN, R., TORRES, A.M., SANAHUJA, H., OSORIO, C., CALVO, J., ROMERO, G., & VISCONTI, E. (2015). Index of Governance and Public Policy in Disaster Risk Management (iGOPP): Main Technical Document. Inter-American Development Bank, IDB Technical Note No. 720. Go to original source...
    26. LIPSKY, M. (1980). Street-Level Bureaucracy: Dilemmas of the Individual in Public Services. Russell Sage Foundation. ISBN‑13: 9780871545244.
    27. LIPSKY, M. (2010). Street-Level Bureaucracy: Dilemmas of the Individual in Public Services (Expanded ed.). Russell Sage Foundation. ISBN‑13: 9780871545442.
    28. MATLAND, R. (1995). Synthesizing the implementation literature: The ambiguity-conflict model of policy implementation. Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory, 5(2), pp. 145-174. DOI: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.jpart.a037242. eISSN: 1477-9803. Go to original source...
    29. MEYER, J. W., & ROWAN, B. (1977). Institutionalized organizations: Formal structure as myth and ceremony. American Journal of Sociology, 83(2), pp. 340-363. DOI: 10.1086/226550. eISSN: 1537-5390. Go to original source...
    30. NOWELL, B., STEELMAN, T., VELEZ, A.-L. K., & YANG, Z. (2018). The structure of effective governance of disaster response networks: Insights from the field. American Review of Public Administration, 48(7), pp. 699-715. DOI: 10.1177/0275074017724225. eISSN: 1552-3357. Go to original source...
    31. OECD. (2017). Boosting Disaster Prevention through Innovative Risk Governance: Insights from Austria, France and Switzerland. OECD Reviews of Risk Management Policies. Paris: OECD Publishing. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264281370-en Go to original source...
    32. OECD. (2018). National Risk Assessments: A Cross Country Perspective. Paris: OECD Publishing. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264287532-en Go to original source...
    33. OECD. (2019). Good governance for critical infrastructure resilience (OECD Reviews of Risk Management Policies). OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/02f0e5a0-en. Go to original source...
    34. OECD. (2020). Strengthening Disaster Risk Governance (Executive Summary). OECD. Retrieved from https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/building-resilience-through-disaster-risk-management-in-intermediary-cities_b2f1efb1-en/full-report.html
    35. OECD. (2024). Disaster Risk Governance in the European Union: Country Reviews. Paris: OECD Publishing. Retrieved from https://one.oecd.org/document/C(2024)92/en/pdf
    36. PAPADOPOULOU, C.-I., KALOGIANNIDIS, S., KALFAS, D., KONTEOS, G., & KAPAGERIDIS, I. (2025). Civil Protection in Greece's Cities and Regions: Multi-Hazard Performance, Systemic Gaps, and a Roadmap to Integrated Urban Resilience. Urban Science, 9(9) doi:10.3390/urbansci9090362. Go to original source...
    37. PRESSMAN, J. L., & WILDAVSKY, A. (1984). Implementation: How Great Expectations in Washington Are Dashed in Oakland; Or, Why It's Amazing that Federal Programs Work at All (3rd ed.). Berkeley, CA: University of California Press. ISBN‑13: 9780520053311.
    38. RAMLI, M. W. A., ALIAS, N. E., MOHD YUSOF, H., YUSOP, Z., & TAIB, S. M. (2020). Disaster Risk Index: A Review of Local Scale Concept and Methodologies. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 479(1). Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/479/1/012023. Go to original source...
    39. STATISTA RESEARCH DEPARTMENT. (2026). Natural Disasters in Greece: Frequency and Impact 1980 - 2023. Statista.
    40. STATISTA RESEARCH DEPARTMENT. (2025). Average annual number of natural hazards that occurred in Greece from 1980 to 2020, by type. Statista. Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1426765/greece-average-annual-natural-hazard-occurrence-by-type/
    41. SYLVES, R. T. (2015). Disaster Policy and Politics (2nd ed.). Washington, DC: CQ Press. ISBN‑13: 9781483307817.
    42. UNDRR (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction). (2015). Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 - 2030. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. Retrieved from https://www.undrr.org/publication/sendai-framework-disaster-risk-reduction-2015-2030
    43. UNDRR. (2017). The Sendai Framework Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. Retrieved from https://www.undrr.org/terminology
    44. UNDRR. (2022). Monitoring the Sendai Framework: Global Indicator Framework and Sendai Framework Monitor. Retrieved from https://www.undrr.org/implementing-sendai-framework/monitoring-sendai-framework
    45. UNDRR. (2023). Report of the Midterm Review of the Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 - 2030. United Nations. Retrieved from https://www.undrr.org
    46. UNDP. (2004). Reducing Disaster Risk: A Challenge for Development. New York: United Nations Development Programme, Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery. Retrieved from https://www.undp.org/publications/reducing-disaster-risk-challenge-development
    47. WARDROPPER, C., et al. (2025). Barriers to cross-sectoral coordination in disaster risk governance: Evidence from Southern Europe. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences.
    48. WEICK, K. E. (1988). Enacted sensemaking in crisis situations. Journal of Management Studies, 25(4), pp. 305-317. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6486.1988.tb00039.x. Go to original source...
    49. WEICK, K. E. (1993). The collapse of sensemaking in organizations: The Mann Gulch disaster. Administrative Science Quarterly, 38(4), pp. 628-652. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.2307/2393339 . Go to original source...
    50. WORLD BANK. (2024). Institutional Capacity for Policy Implementation in Disaster Risk Management. World Bank Group. Retrieved from https://www.gfdrr.org/en/ar/annual-report-2024

    This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0), which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original publication is properly cited. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.


    Return to the content